http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/ Política monetaria, Publicaciones, Estadísticas, Transparencia es-pe http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/ webmaster@bcrp.gob.pe http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-20-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-20-2012.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.18 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.24 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.42 billion at May 15. Exchange rate: S/. 2.670 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 58.33 billion. GDP grew 5.5 percent in March 2012. Country risk at 180 basis points. Friday, 18 May 2012 19:12:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2012/international-reserves-april-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2012/international-reserves-april-2012.pdf At the end of April 2012, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 57 535 million, USD 1 692 million higher than the previous month. Friday, 18 May 2012 17:29:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-19-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-19-2012.pdf Average interbank interest rate at 4.24 percent. Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.15 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.57 billion at May 8. Exchange rate: S/. 2.643 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 58.38 billion. Non traditional exports grew 14,5 percent in March 2012. Country risk at 159 basis points. Annual profitability at the Lima Stock Exchange reached 9.9 percent. Friday, 11 May 2012 21:02:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-18-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-18-2012.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.31 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.24 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.54 billion at April 27. Exchange rate: S/. 2.639 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 57.49 billion. Inflation in Metropolitan Lima recorded a rate of 0.53 percent in April. Average country risk in April at 164 basis points. Annual profitability in the Lima Stock Exchange reaches 17.6 percent. Friday, 4 May 2012 21:21:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-17-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-17-2012.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.25 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.24 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.33 billion at April 24. Exchange rate: S/. 2.651 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 57.26 billion. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at March 31. Non financial public sector: Surplus of S/. 2.36 billion in March. Country risk at 165 basis points. Annual profitability at the Lima Stock Exchange reached 17.8 percent. Saturday, 28 Apr 2012 08:54:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-16-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-16-2012.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.19 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Exchange rate: S/. 2.656 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 57.42 billion. GDP grew 7.2 percent in February 2012. Country risk at 163 basis points. Annual profitability at the Lima Stock Exchange reached 20.0 percent. Friday, 20 Apr 2012 21:30:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2012/international-reserves-march-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2012/international-reserves-march-2012.pdf At the end of March 2012, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 55 843 million, USD 2 486 million higher than the previous month. Wednesday, 18 Apr 2012 12:12:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Monetary-Policy/Inflation-Report/2012/inflation-report-march-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Monetary-Policy/Inflation-Report/2012/inflation-report-march-2012.pdf Inflation Report: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2012-2013 Wednesday, 18 Apr 2012 11:30:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-15-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-15-2012.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.27 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Exchange rate: S/. 2.666 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 56.65 billion. Inflation in Metropolitan Lima recorded a rate of 0.77 percent in March. BCRP Survey on Macroeconomic Expectations: March 2012. Total exports grew 10.7 percent in February 2012. Country risk at 179 basis points. Annual profitability at the Lima Stock Exchange reached 19.6 percent. Friday, 13 Apr 2012 18:17:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-14-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-14-2012.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.27 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.66 billion at March 30. Exchange rate: S/. 2.668 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 55.79 billion. Country risk at 148 basis points. Annual profitability in the Lima Stock Exchange reaches 23.4 percent. Wednesday, 4 Apr 2012 18:34:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-13-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-13-2012.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.27 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.59 billion at March 27. Exchange rate: S/. 2.671 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 55.51 billion. Liquidity and credit at March 15. Non financial public sector: Surplus of S/. 1.24 billion in February. Country risk at 161 basis points. Annual profitability at the Lima Stock Exchange reached 21.5 percent. Friday, 30 Mar 2012 18:51:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-12-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-12-2012.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.24 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.56 billion at March 20. Exchange rate: S/. 2.672 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 55.37 billion. Liquidity and credit at February 29. GDP grew 5.4 percent in January 2012. Country risk at 145 basis points. Annual profitability at the Lima Stock Exchange reached 17.8 percent. Friday, 23 Mar 2012 18:39:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2012/international-reserves-february-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2012/international-reserves-february-2012.pdf At the end of February 2012, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 53 356 million, USD 2 475 million higher than the previous month. Tuesday, 20 Mar 2012 10:35:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-11-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-11-2012.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.23 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.37 billion at March 13. Exchange rate: S/. 2.670 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 54.77 billion. Country risk at 165 basis points. Annual profitability at the Lima Stock Exchange reached 18.9 percent. Friday, 16 Mar 2012 18:38:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-10-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-10-2012.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.23 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.94 billion at March 6. Exchange rate: S/. 2.676 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 54.79 billion. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at February 15. Inflation in Metropolitan Lima recorded a rate of 0.32 percent in February. BCRP Survey on Macroeconomic Expectations: February 2012. Total exports grew 34.7 percent in January 2012. Country risk at 193 basis points. Annual profitability in the Lima Stock Exchange reaches 16.4 percent. Friday, 9 Mar 2012 19:03:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-09-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-09-2012.pdf Corporate prime interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.32 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.23 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.67 billion at February 28. Exchange rate: S/. 2.678 per dollar. International reserves amounted to US$ 53.99 billion. Country risk at 200 basis points. Annual profitability at the Lima Stock Exchange reached 17.6 percent. Friday, 2 Mar 2012 18:34:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-08-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-08-2012.pdf MACROECONOMIC REPORT - Q4 - 2011: Domestic demand grew 5.2 percent in Q4 and 7.2 percent in 2011. Current account deficit of 1.3 percent of GDP in Q4 and 2011. NFPS registered a surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP in 2011. WEEKLY REPORT: Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 5.34 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.22 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.51 billion at February 21. Exchange rate: S/. 2.680 per dollar. International reserves totaled US$ 53.39 billion. Liquidity and credit at January 31. GDP grew 6.0 percent in December and recorded a growth rate of 6.9 percent in 2011. Non financial public sector: Surplus of S/. 4.73 billion in January. Country risk fell to 188 basis points. Annual profitability at the LSE reaches 17.5 percent. Friday, 24 Feb 2012 20:37:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-08-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-08-2012.pdf Forecasting terms of trade is an important input to the design of macroeconomic policies and it is even more important in countries like Peru - a small open economy that mostly exports primary inputs. In this paper, we use the methodology applied in Chen, Rogoff and Rossi (2009) to forecast the change in Peruvian export prices using the changes in an exchange rate index of countries that export primary inputs. The results show that these indices have a good predictive power to forecast export prices in Peru. They fare better than other standard forecasting tools such as the autorregresive or random walk models. Tuesday, 21 Feb 2012 15:32:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-07-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-07-2012.pdf Do survey data on inflation expectations contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? I address this question by using survey data in the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) to estimate and compare its performance when solved under the assumptions of Rational Expectations and learning. This information serves as an additional moment restriction and helps to determine the forecasting model for inflation that agents use under learning. My results reveal that the predictive power of this model is improved when using both survey data and an admissible learning rule for the formation of inflation expectations. Tuesday, 21 Feb 2012 15:30:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-07-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-07-2012.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.33 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.21 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.66 billion at February 14. Exchange rate: S/. 2.685 per dollar. International reserves amounted to US$ 53.54 billion. Country risk declined to 201 basis points. Annual profitability at the LSE reached 14.4 percent. Friday, 17 Feb 2012 18:11:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2012/international-reserves-january-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2012/international-reserves-january-2012.pdf At the end of January 2012, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 50 881 million, USD 2 022 million higher than the previous month. Wednesday, 15 Feb 2012 14:34:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-06-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-06-2012.pdf El rol de los encajes bancarios como instrumento de control monetario ha sido constantemente discutido y modelado. En este trabajo se revisan los modelos en donde las políticas de requerimiento de encaje cumplen diferentes roles. Debido a que dicho rol es cambiante, los investigadores difieren en su efectividad. La gran heterogeneidad en la aplicación de dichos encajes por parte de los diferentes bancos centrales en el mundo, sugiere que aún no existe un consenso acerca de cuál es la estrategia óptima a seguir. Esta observación sirve de motivación a la reciente literatura teórica pues los encajes podrían tener un rol estabilizador en el sistema bancario y ayudar a que los bancos centrales alcancen sus objetivos macroeconómicos. Wednesday, 15 Feb 2012 12:03:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-06-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-06-2012.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.33 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.22 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.83 billion at February 7. Exchange rate: S/. 2.688 per dollar. International reserves amounted to US$ 53.15 billion. Exports amounted to US$ 46.27 billion at end 2011. Country risk declined to 199 basis points. Annual profitability at the LSE reached 17.1 percent. Friday, 10 Feb 2012 18:07:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-05-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-05-2012.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.32 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.23 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.69 billion at January 31. International reserves amount to US$ 50.83 billion. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at January 15. Inflation rate of -0.10 percent in Metropolitan Lima in January. BCRP Survey on Macroeconomic Expectations: January 2012. Average country risk at 219 basis points in January. Annual profitability in the Lima Stock Exchange reaches 12.7 percent. Friday, 3 Feb 2012 18:00:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-04-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-04-2012.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.26 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.23 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.36 billion at January 24. Exchange rate: S/. 2.692 per US dollar. International reserves register a record level of US$ 50.4 billion. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at December 31, 2011. Fiscal surplus of S/. 7.98 billion recorded in 2011. Country risk at 221 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 27 Jan 2012 18:44:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2011/International-Reserves-December-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2011/International-Reserves-December-2011.pdf At the end of December 2011, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 48 859 million, USD 232 million lower than the previous month. Tuesday, 24 Jan 2012 13:50:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-05-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-05-2012.pdf In order to quantify the effects of monetary policy, this paper employs an alternative empirical measure of monetary policy shocks based on market expectations obtained from media and survey information in Peru. Using monthly data for the period 2003-2011, we use the proposed measure as a variable representing exogenous variation in monetary policy and evaluate its dynamic impact on output and prices. The results show a coherent picture of the effects of monetary policy compared to alternative approaches in terms of both the magnitude and the timing of the effects. Tuesday, 24 Jan 2012 13:18:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-03-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-03-2012.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.26 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.24 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.54 billion at January 17. Exchange rate: S/. 2.692 per US dollar. International reserves reach a record high of US$ 50.3 billion. GDP grew 5 percent in November. Country risk at 235 basis points. Friday, 20 Jan 2012 19:31:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-04-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-04-2012.pdf The slope of the sticky information Phillips curve proposed by Mankiw and Reis (2002) is based on the degree of information rigidity on the part of firms. Carroll (2003) uses an epidemiology model of expectations and finds evidence for the U.S. of a one-year lag in the transmission of information from professional forecasters to households. Using financial institutions? and firms? survey data from Peru and the model proposed by Carroll, I estimate the degree of information rigidity for the Peruvian economy. This paper also considers heterogeneous responses and explores the cross-sectional dimension of these survey forecasts. I find that the degree of information stickiness is such that it takes between one and three quarters for updating information, a result that is robust to different specifications. Tuesday, 17 Jan 2012 15:36:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-03-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-03-2012.pdf We build a small open economy, real business cycle model with labor market frictions to evaluate the role of employment protection in shaping business cycles in emerging economies. The model features matching frictions and an endogenous selection effect by which inefficient jobs are destroyed in recessions. In a quantitative version of the model calibrated to the Mexican economy we find that reducing separation costs to a level consistent with developed economies would reduce output volatility by 15 percent. We also use the model to analyze the Mexican crisis episode of 2008 and conclude that an economy with lower separation costs would have experienced a smaller drop in output and in measured total factor productivity with no significant change in aggregate employment. Tuesday, 17 Jan 2012 15:35:00 -0500